The traditional peak season spot of the hottest go

2022-07-29
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In the traditional peak season of the golden nine silver ten, the spot is strong in the South and stable in the North

at present, in the traditional peak season of the golden nine silver ten, the spot is strong in the South and stable in the north, and the overall delivery is good. The inventory in Shahe is accumulated in the early stage, and the recent delivery has improved, with a slight decline in inventory. In terms of price, all regions have increased significantly since the middle of August. This price increase is mainly due to the initiative of manufacturers to raise prices by taking advantage of rising costs. The actual increment of downstream processing orders is limited. In previous years, the price began to fall after reaching its peak in September and October. The duration of price rise this year remains to be observed. From the current price rise performance, it is weak. News: at the end of last week, the second and third tier cities increased their regulation and control policies. Last week, Shahe also introduced the policy of limiting the production of glass manufacturers by 15% in the heating season. The specific implementation measures have not been determined. On the futures market, the price fell after reaching 1467. The logic behind it is that we believe that there are the following points:

the cost has risen sharply, the spot has risen, the profit is still high

the environmental protection policy is strict, the enterprise's own environment 1. The load error exceeds ± 1.0% or the unstable guarantee investment has increased. In addition, the exploitation of sandstone, white stone and other raw materials is limited, and the price has also soared sharply. In addition, the most important factor affecting the cost is soda ash. Affected by environmental protection and safety inspection, the supply is reduced, the supply is tight, and the inventory is maintained at a low level below 200000 tons. In addition, the production cost of soda ash has increased, and the downstream demand is stable. The price of soda ash has increased by yuan since September, which is equivalent to the increase of glass production cost by about yuan. The rise of soda ash further drives the cost focus upward, but the glass manufacturers have also shifted the cost rise to the rise of spot price in a disguised way, so the current profit is still high, attracting cold repair and ignition to resume production

the impact of Shahe's production restriction on the supply side is limited.

Shahe's production restriction is 15%. First, the actual implementation needs to be further investigated. If it is really implemented, the reduced production capacity will account for about 2.39% of the national production capacity, and the impact is limited. In addition, the current profits are good, attracting production lines to be put into production. According to the statistics of glass futures, the planned cold repair and resumption of production + new ignition lines in the second half of the year will reach 8, with a total capacity of 29.76 million heavy boxes, equivalent to 3.2% of the current production capacity, It will offset the impact of limited production in Shahe. At the same time, because of the good profits, the production lines that reach the cold repair time delay the cold repair time, and the probability of cold repair within the year is low. In terms of data, up to now, 39.18 million heavy containers have been cold repaired in 17 years, 13.2 million new ones have been built, 30.6 million heavy containers have been re produced and ignited, with a total increase of 4.62 million heavy containers. The current production capacity is 939.84 million heavy containers, an increase of 2% over last year. 42%, and the supply is in the process of slight increase

the overall inventory in the peak season declined. It is expected that the decline rate is weaker than that of last year.

since mid August, when traders started a round of replenishment mode, the industry inventory began to decline. It is now the peak season, and it is still in the de stocking state. It is expected that, but the decline rate is weaker than that of last year. Even in Shahe area, the manufacturers accumulated inventory in the peak season. With the long-term arrival of the national day, the pressure on inventory accumulation will further increase. In terms of traders, their confidence was frustrated because the goods they hoarded in the early stage were near the cost line. At present, they mainly purchase cautiously. According to the statistics, as of September 22, the manufacturer's inventory was 31.53 million heavy containers, an increase of 840000 heavy containers year-on-year, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year

the real estate regulation and control policies have been strengthened, and the risk of demand decline has increased.

at the micro level, the month on month increment of downstream deep processing orders is limited, the deep processing funds are tight, and the ability to undertake orders is weakened. In terms of real estate, the regulatory policy was further tightened, and the risk of demand decline increased. Since July, the real estate data began to weaken, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of new construction area and sales area can gradually decline according to the corresponding experimental schemes of different standards. According to the year-on-year data performance of the month, the newly started and sales area fell significantly in July and rose slightly in August. In the first half of the year, the sales were driven by the third and fourth tier. However, the impact of the slowdown of the third and fourth tier sales began in the middle and late July. At present, the third and fourth tier shed reform was over completed in the first half of the year, and the shed reform efforts tended to weaken in the second half of the year. In addition, at present, the inventory of some third and fourth tier cities is reasonable, and even some inventory is in urgent need. Therefore, the necessity of the third and fourth tier de stocking in the second half of the year is also weakened. However, the first and second line control policies are still in place, and the high sales base in the second half of last year has put pressure on sales in the second half of this year. In terms of funds of real estate enterprises, the growth rate of capital sources further declined in August. The slowdown in sales and the current rise in mortgage interest rates of major banks have a restraining effect on Residents' house purchase, which will further affect the deposit, advance collection and personal mortgage loans. In addition, the tight financing environment of real estate enterprises and the tightening of capital sources of real estate enterprises have further increased, which is detrimental to real estate investment and affects the speed of subsequent real estate construction and completion. At present, the inventory continues to decline, and the real estate has a demand for land acquisition. However, if the future market expectations change, the real estate enterprises will change their land acquisition strategies accordingly. Even after land acquisition, it will be further transformed into new construction, and the construction pace will slow down. According to the land purchase area announced in August, there was a large year-on-year decrease in that month, and the stock replenishment of real estate enterprises weakened. In addition to the capital pressure, the future market expectations may change

future outlook

to sum up, the cost rises. However, we believe that the role of the cost on the price is more reflected in the bottom support. If the demand is bad, the cost rise does not have a price transmission effect. Moreover, the current spot price rises more synchronously, so the profit is still high. On the supply side, the impact of Shahe's production restriction is limited, driven by profits. In the second half of the year, the resumption of production capacity tends to increase, and the total supply may increase instead of decrease. In terms of inventory, the decline of inventory in peak season was within expectations, but the decline was weaker than last year. On the demand side, the third and fourth line de stocking was implemented effectively, the necessity of de stocking was weakened in the second half of this year, and the subsequent sales force needs to be verified. However, the continuous control policy and the large sales base in the second half of last year put pressure on the sales in the second half of this year. However, the slowdown in sales, the current tight loan quota of real estate enterprises and the tightening of capital sources are detrimental to the real estate investment, further affecting the subsequent real estate construction and completion speed. At present, the inventory continues to decline, and the real estate has the demand for land acquisition. However, if the future market is expected to conclude that this friction and wear tester can not only test the change of dynamic friction coefficient in real time, but also the real estate enterprises will change the land acquisition strategy accordingly. Even after land acquisition, it will be further transformed into new construction The construction pace will also slow down. In terms of operation, 01 is the traditional off-season. The real estate regulation policy has been further strengthened, the risk of decline at the demand side has intensified, and the judgment of maintaining the weak pattern of supply and demand in the off-season has been maintained. At present, the price of Shahe factory and warehouse is converted into yuan, and the discount range is 7.9%. Before the festival, it is suggested that the idea of "light position and short position" or "bargain hunting and profit stopping" should be adopted, and the strategy of "long-term high and short position" should be maintained. Risk points: other places have issued production restriction policies and refined production restriction measures; The cold repair line accelerates the cold repair

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